Case & Working Paper
| Paper Number | KCB-WP-2025-001 |
|---|---|
| Title | Technology Life Cycles |
| Title(Other) | |
| Author | Bowon Kim |
| Publisher | KAIST College of Business |
| Abstract | Technological innovation is the most prominent driving force behind humanity’s advancement
(Freeman & Soete, 1997). The victory of the numerous civilizations that humanity takes for granted today is impossible without technological innovation. However, technological innovation has not simply developed linearly (Nelson & Winter, 1982). Technological advances that seem unrelated, sometimes very small or straightforward, accumulate, and at some point, they lead to a great invention with tremendous explosive power (Arthur, 2009). This is like magma remaining deep in the ground for hundreds of thousands of years, with the temperature rising by as little as 10-10 degrees Celsius per day, and when it reaches its threshold, it pierces thousands of meters of ground and causes a massive volcanic eruption. Finally, as the volcano quiets down after the eruption, the remnants of the eruption go through the invisible process of nature to quench new magma all over again. Perhaps it is entering a hibernation of tens of thousands of years in preparation for another more massive explosion. There will be no significant disagreement that technological innovation is the driving force for advancing humanity. However, reaching a perfect consensus on the exact definition of technological innovation is challenging. Nevertheless, one can get an idea of what technological innovation means by asking a few simple questions. For example, is Einstein’s theory of relativity a technological innovation? Is Steve Jobs’ iPhone a technological innovation? This series of questions helps us understand technological innovation more clearly. It is true that both Einstein’s theory of relativity and Steve Jobs’ iPhone brought about essential inflection points in human history, but their contributions to human development are qualitatively different. The first difference is whether it immediately helps make actual or realistic improvements in daily human life. The second difference is whether it directly impacts actual or realistic improvements in daily human life (Christensen, 1997). The actual or realistic improvement of daily human life here means “a state that provides efficient and effective solutions, that is, utility, for humans to maintain their daily lives (Rogers, 2003).” According to this standard, Steve Jobs’ invention is a technological innovation. Still, Einstein’s theory cannot be considered a technological innovation and should instead be considered scientific knowledge, which is the prerequisite basis for technological innovation. We define technological innovation as “an accumulation of tangible and intangible knowledge that helps humanity become more civilized and develop materially, mentally, and physically” by “providing immediate and direct help in the practical and realistic improvement of human life based on scientific knowledge.” Great technological innovations produce results that no one could have easily predicted. Technological innovation sometimes develops in directions even its essential inventors could not have imagined (Utterback, 1994). The basic concept of AI (artificial intelligence) was already established in the 1950s. However, it remained only a concept for several decades, and real progress was slow. In 2007, Steve Jobs introduced the iPhone to the world. When he launched this new phone, he probably thought it was a naive invention that combined a mobile phone and a palm computer. Of course, obviously, he was very proud of that alone, and he deserved it. If Steve were alive in 2024, however, he would be shocked by the groundbreaking achievements of his humble invention because it changed the world with a power that no one could have imagined! The development of AI requires enormous amounts of information. Before Steve Jobs’ iPhone, it was impossible to obtain such live information in such large quantities that it could be used for training AI. Now, there are more smartphones scattered around the world than almost everyone on the planet, and there is an endless overflow of information that is voluntarily filled with enormous amounts of photos and texts without anyone’s instructions or commands. All of this contributes to the rapid development of AI, and more advanced AI allows people to generate more information. This endless mutual reinforcement is genuinely the iPhone’s decisive contribution to human development that Steve Jobs could not have imagined. |
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Contact : Kim, HaengRan ( hrkim@business.kaist.ac.kr )
