Selected Publications
Volatility analysis with realized GARCH-Ito models
( Song, Xinyu | Kim, Donggyu | Yuan, Huiling | Cui, Xiangyu | Lu, Zhiping | Zhou, Yong | Wang, Yazhen )JOURNAL OF ECONOMETRICS2021-05
Abstract
This paper introduces a unified approach for modeling high-frequency financial data that can accommodate both the continuous-time jump?diffusion and discrete-time realized GARCH model by embedding the discrete realized GARCH structure in the continuous instantaneous volatility process. The key feature of the proposed model is that the corresponding conditional daily integrated volatility adopts an autoregressive structure, where both integrated volatility and jump variation serve as innovations. We name it as the realized GARCH-Ito model. Given the autoregressive structure in the conditional daily integrated volatility, we propose a quasi-likelihood function for parameter estimation and establish its asymptotic properties. To improve the parameter estimation, we propose a joint quasi-likelihood function that is built on the marriage of daily integrated volatility estimated by high-frequency data and nonparametric volatility estimator obtained from option data. We conduct a simulation study to check the finite sample performance of the proposed methodologies and an empirical study with the S&P500 stock index and option data.
When Does Regulation Distort Costs? Lessons from Fuel Procurement in US Electricity Generation: Comment
( Han, Jin Soo | Houde, Jean-Francois | Van Benthem, Arthur A. | Abito, Jose Miguel )AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW2021-04
Abstract
We revisit one of the results in Cicala (2015) and show that the previously estimated large and significant effects of US electricity restructuring on fuel procurement are not robust to the presence of outliers. Using methodologies from the robust statistics literature, we estimate the effect to be less than one-half of the previous estimate and not statistically different from zero. The robust methodology also identifies as outliers the plants owned by a single company whose coal contracts were renegotiated before discussions about restructuring even started.
Time Encoding in Languages and Investment Efficiency
( Kim, Jaehyeon | Kim, Yongtae | Zhou, Jian )MANAGEMENT SCIENCE2021-04
Abstract
Linguistics research shows that languages differ as to how they differentiate future from present events. Economics research finds that when the grammatical structure of a language disassociates the future from the present, speakers of the language also disassociate the future from the present in their behaviors. This study examines how linguistically induced time perception relates to cross-country variation in investment efficiency. We find that underinvestment is less prevalent in countries where there is a weaker time disassociation in the language. The results from both a within-country analysis based on firms headquartered in different regions of Switzerland and an analysis based on the birthplace information of U.S. firms’ chief executive officers confirm the relation between languages and investment efficiency. Collectively, the results suggest that time encoding in languages influences speakers’ cognition and their investment decisions.
Positive feedback in coordination games: Stochastic evolutionary dynamics and the logit choice rule
( Hwang, Sung-Ha | Rey-Bellet, Luc )GAMES AND ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR2021-03
Abstract
We study the problem of stochastic stability for evolutionary dynamics under the logit choice rule. We consider general classes of coordination games, symmetric or asymmetric, with an arbitrary number of strategies, which satisfies the marginal bandwagon property (i.e., there is positive feedback to coordinate). Our main result is that the most likely evolutionary escape paths from a status quo convention consist of a series of identical mistakes. As an application of our result, we show that the Nash bargaining solution arises as the long run convention for the evolutionary Nash demand game under the usual logit choice rule. We also obtain a new bargaining solution if the logit choice rule is combined with intentional idiosyncratic plays. The new bargaining solution is more egalitarian than the Nash bargaining solution, demonstrating that intentionality implies equality under the logit choice model. ⓒ 2021 Elsevier Inc.
The Effect of Monetary Policy on Bank Wholesale Funding
( Choi, Dong Beom | Choi, Hyun-Soo )MANAGEMENT SCIENCE2021-01
Abstract
We study how monetary policy affects the funding composition of the banking sector. When monetary tightening reduces the supply of retail deposits, banks attempt to substitute wholesale funding for deposit outflows to smooth their lending. Because of financial frictions, banks have varying degrees of access to wholesale funding. Therefore, large banks, or those with greater reliance on wholesale funding, increase their wholesale funding more. Consequently, monetary tightening increases both the reliance on and the concentration of wholesale funding within the banking sector. Our findings also suggest that liquidity requirements could bolster monetary policy transmission through the bank lending channel. Copyright: ⓒ 2020 INFORMS.
